Kate Bulkley, Media Analyst.

Viewpoint: Messier's US distribution strategy

By Kate Bulkley

Advanced TV Markets

Jan 2002

When Jean-Marie Messier began scanning the real estate listings for a pad on Park Avenue in New York early this year, it was a clear sign that the ambitious head of Vivendi-Universal was serious about playing big in the world's largest media market.

That meant filling the gap in the French media conglomerate's US distribution base, which - compared with its strong distribution in Europe through Canal Plus - was pretty thin. Now, three deals and one $17 million apartment later, Messier says he has filled the gap. But has he?

Here's the list of the V-U distribution deals: a joint venture with Yahoo!; a 10 per cent stake in number two US DTH operator Echostar, which is trying but is not assured of buying its biggest rival, the number one DTH business DirecTV; and the $10.3 billion cash and stock purchase of the entertainment assets of USA Networks, the US cable TV and home shopping giant. "Along with our strategic partnership with Echostar, this (USA) transaction fully addresses V-U's needs in terms of integration and distribution in the US market," Messier said in a press release. But later on the conference call (December 17) he made it clear that although the deal with Echostar gives V-U "privileged" access to the DTH operator's six million subscribers, it is far from exclusive.

"the code name of the acquisition was "Tier One", which Diller says refers to the fact that this is the first move in a bigger plan"

Barry Diller, the USA Networks CEO who will be CEO of the new V-U Entertainment unit, says that the code name of the acquisition was "Tier One", which Diller says refers to the fact that this is the first move in a bigger plan. Messier says the company will start talking to US cable TV operators about carrying the five new channels he plans for Echostar, including action-adventure, general entertainment, youth-oriented and movie channels. He also plans eight to 10 interactive services that would be piggy-backed onto one transponder.

In truth six million subscribers in the US market is mere chicken feed. Cable networks aren't taken seriously until they have at least 15 million subscribers. Of course if Echostar does manage to get the regulatory clearance it needs to buy DirecTV, that would add 10 million DirecTV subs to Echostar's footprint and V-U's distribution plans. Messier also sees Echostar/DirecTV as a step in his plan to create a worldwide distribution platform.

Sound familiar? Yup, the same vision that Rupert Murdoch had to shelve when Echostar beat News Corp in its bid for DirecTV. Now we'll see what the Messier Magic can do. Of course, Messier has a lot of ground to make up. Murdoch has BSkyB in the UK, a company that Messier recently sold out of.

And through Star TV and other regional satellite platforms Murdoch is way ahead in Asia and in Latin America. But DirecTV Latin America could be for sale

At a time when other media companies are being battered by an unforgiving advertising slump, V-U's reliance on subscription income (44 per cent of revenues come from recurring subscriptions), and non-advertising dependent businesses (publishing, games, movies and music) has put it in a prime position. The bad ad environment has also effectively lowered the price that Messier might have had to pay for USA, whose revenues come from both subscriptions and advertising. According to Morgan Stanley bank, V-U is only paying a 20 per cent premium to USA Networks' fair value.

So far Messier has weathered the ad slump, but now he is taking on more advertising-exposed assets. Messier's reasoning is that the synergies of putting the TV channels and production together with the Universal Studios' movie assets makes strategic as well as cash-flow enhancing sense.

Closing V-U's distribution gap in the US has taken a big step in the right direction. And as part of the deal Messier gets Diller, one of the most forward-thinking US media executives, although also considered one of the more difficult. Only time will tell if Diller's ego can get along with Messier's.

Another key attribute of the deal is USA Networks stakeholder John Malone's Liberty Media, which after the USA-V-U transaction will emerge with a 3.6 per cent stake in V-U. As the European cable TV business seems to be consolidating around Liberty Media, which has effective control of UPC and is trying to tie up a big cable deal in Germany, Messier's choice of partners in his quest for distribution platforms looks good again. But Liberty like Echostar is still putting its platform together.

If these work, Messier will look prescient. If they don't, Messier will have to go back to his deal-making ways. Not too much of a stretch for this former investment banker.

 

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