For Broadcast December 10, 2009

It may still need a boss… but the broadcaster has cause for optimism.

England’s less-than-challenging World Cup draw will have brightened the mood at Gray’s Inn Road, where negotiations start this week between ITV and the BBC about which broadcaster shows which games next summer. Drawing the USA, Algeria and Slovenia gives England a good chance of getting through the group stage - and gives ITV a good chance of a revenue boost next year.

In fact, despite the small matter of still needing to find a chief executive, ITV’s forecasts are looking more ‘cloudy but brightening’ than just ‘heavy showers ahead’.

Last month, chief operating officer John Cresswell pulled forward ITV’s trading statement, with the broadcaster set to end the year with the best advertising figures since 2007, and the first increase in net advertising revenue (NAR) since the first half of 2008.

Cresswell has wisely not called the end of the ad slump, but the positive noises from ITV have been echoed by Steve Morrison, chief executive of All3Media and one of ITV’s biggest programming suppliers, including Midsomer Murders.

He thinks ITV could be about to go into three “very good years”. Speaking at a Royal Television Society (RTS) event, Morrison said he thought ad money would start flowing back into ITV if the economy picks up, and that the incoming chief executive’s biggest problem may be whether to sell ITV or invest in its future by continuing to put money on screen. No prizes for which route Morrison would like to see ITV take.

And there’s more good news, including the success of stripping drama series Collision. It was a bold programming move by Peter Fincham, which paid off with big audiences and happy advertisers, and the director of television has also lured back Paul O’Grady, who many agree was never really a good fit with Channel 4.

Peter Bazalgette told the RTS event that ITV Studios could be in a strong position next year to be leveraged much further, perhaps by combining it with another big content company to give it scale. I’m thinking this could look appealing to NBC Universal, but we’ll see.

But what about the digital threat to ITV’s TV advertising? It’s real, but not lethal, according to Bazalgette, who uses the ‘meerkat theory’ to defend the 30-second spot. If the web has all the answers, why would Aleksandr (pictured) be on our tellies, pushing an online car-insurance business?

Let’s be clear, ITV is not out of the woods: regulators are blocking the sale of Friends Reunited; CRR is still in place and STV doesn’t want - and isn’t paying for - some of ITV’s biggest shows. It doesn’t end there: Sky still has a significant stake in the company; revenue diversification is needed; ITV’s pension deficit is £655 million; and group revenues are still falling, down 11% in the nine months to September.

But ITV is going into the new year with a sense of optimism that just wasn’t there three months ago. All it needs now is a new chief executive to address some of those remaining challenges. Simples.