For Broadcast June 4, 2008

It could be an archetypal Disney story - brave, upstanding Disney Channel (DC) decides to leave its traditional Spanish home and head for a bold, new future in neighbouring DTT land where it hopes to make its fortune.

But there are potential problems for DC, which is leaving behind its siblings (Playhouse Disney and Toon Disney) which have to survive in pay-TV land and scratch a living from a smaller audience while DC goes for broke. Will DC and Spanish DTT get along? Will a larger audience come to watch brave DC or will DC scuttle back to pay-TV land after a few unsuccessful months?

The fact is Disney has already turned away from premium pay-TV to become part of basic pay-TV packages in many markets, as it searches for bigger audiences. The move to totally free-to-air in Spain could be a harbinger for other markets as well but managing director of Disney channels in Europe John Hardie is hedging his bets because he's been burnt by DTT before. Remember the ill-fated launch of Disney's ABC1 on UK DTT?

So for the moment free Disney Channel in Spain is a one-off. It also doesn't half help that Disney plunked down 27m Euros for a 20% stake in one of the six Spanish DTT platform licensees, Net TV, back in February.

Clearly, DTT is looking to become a much bigger distribution platform than pay-TV in Spain and pretty quickly, driven by the country's imminent 2010 analogue switch-off.

Today Disney is in 2 million pay homes in Spain. Joining DTT will put it in 6 million homes this summer and in all 14 million Spanish homes by 2010. Disney's forecast is that its Spanish business will be profitable within a year of the changed business model. I'd say DC's love affair with DTT has the makings of being a long-term relationship.